A ‘theory of change’ is a way of depicting how an intervention is intended to work. When developed at the planning and scoping stage of an intervention it allows, amongst other things, the project lead and team to plan their evaluation.
It has the following components (noting that the terms ‘outputs’ and ‘outcomes’ have a different meaning here to that typically used in a research context):
- Situation: what is the current situation or context and what problem is the intervention trying to address
- Inputs: the real resources and processes that are required to achieve the intervention’s objectives
- Activities: the actions required to achieve the intervention’s outputs and outcomes (and ultimately impact)
- Outputs: the immediate results of the intervention
- Outcomes: the intermediate results of the intervention
- Impact: the long-term results from the intervention
- Rationale and assumptions: these will usually be underpinned by research (see also evaluation practice 2.4).
The components of a theory of change are depicted in the diagram below including the connection to vision, aim(s) and objective(s) that underpin the intervention (as part of the current situation or context):
Theory of Change illustration
The key point is that the planning process including planning an evaluation works ‘backwards’ from the intended impact and needs a clear focus on the issue or problem in hand.
Here is an example:
- Situation: student satisfaction and engagement with feedback needs enhancing, and NSS scores are below benchmark for assessment and feedback including for the question ‘how often does feedback help you to improve your work’.
- Vision: all students engage with feedback and utilise it as part of the learning process
- Desired impact: student NSS scores for assessment and feedback questions improve from x to y / at or above benchmark for all student groups
- Outcomes: enhance student satisfaction and engagement with feedback
- Outputs: modules provide students with systematic approach to ‘feedback literacy’ that students engage with
- Activities: resources and teaching activities designed and implemented to improve ‘feedback literacy’
- Inputs: project and associated resources to increase student ‘feedback literacy’
- How do you know you have done it (evaluation strategy) immediate (e.g. student satisfaction with resources provided and evidence of utilisation as indicated e.g. via VLE statistics for resource access and usage), medium (e.g. BSS assessment questions scores improve) and longer term (e.g. NSS assessment and feedback question scores improve so that they are now at or above benchmark).
You can find a theory of change template and some other examples of theories of change.