Dr Peter Long

This paper explores the relationship between clove essential oil processing and tree cover loss, with a comparison to the incidence and effect of wildfires in Analanjirofo in eastern Madagascar between 2012 and 2021. We used Generalised Additive Mixed Models with the proportion of tree cover left around chef-lieu municipalities as response variables. The number of fires detected, the number of traditional and modern clove processing facilities in the municipality, and overlap with Protected Areas, and the number of villages in the municipality were set as fixed factors. Tree cover loss was associated with increased number of traditional and modern facilities. Clove operators show a motivation to keep using traditional facilities since they are more feasible, produce higher quality of clove oil, and reinforce social cohesion. The number of the traditional facilities per municipality remains 2.9 times higher than modern facilities despite their promotion since 2011. The use of the modern facilities is motivated by the lower wood consumption and shorter distillation time. Wildfires, often related to slash-and-burn agriculture, remain a major environmental threat to forest, especially in remote areas and more fires were detected in areas with higher tree cover. The overlap of municipality with Protected Areas has no effect on tree cover loss. Expanding the Agroforestry Systems (AFS) around municipalities and ensuring that they can produce enough fuelwood will improve the clove sector and thrive local economy. Controlling wildfires, developing a long-term clove industry management plan, and improving commercialisation policies could be immediate priorities for achieving sustainable development in the region.

Attractive Targeted Sugar Baits (ATSB) have been demonstrated to result in significant reductions in malaria vector numbers in areas of scarce vegetation cover such as in Mali and Israel, but it is not clear whether such an effect can be replicated in environments where mosquitoes have a wide range of options for sugar resources. The current study evaluated the attractiveness of the predominant flowering plants of Asembo Siaya County, western Kenya in comparison to an ATSB developed by Westham Co. Sixteen of the most common flowering plants in the study area were selected and evaluated for relative attractiveness to malaria vectors in semi-field structures. Six of the most attractive flowers were compared to determine the most attractive to local Anopheles mosquitoes. The most attractive plant was then compared to different versions of ATSB. In total, 56,600 Anopheles mosquitoes were released in the semi-field structures. From these, 5150 mosquitoes (2621 males and 2529 females) of An. arabiensis, An. funestus and An. gambiae were recaptured on the attractancy traps. Mangifera indica was the most attractive sugar source for all three species while Hyptis suaveolens and Tephrosia vogelii were the least attractive plants to the mosquitoes. Overall, ATSB version 1.2 was significantly more attractive compared to both ATSB version 1.1 and Mangifera indica. Mosquitoes were differentially attracted to various natural plants in western Kenya and ATSB. The observation that ATSB v1.2 was more attractive to local Anopheles mosquitoes than the most attractive natural sugar source indicates that this product may be able to compete with natural sugar sources in western Kenya and suggests this product may have the potential to impact mosquito populations in the field.

The Lake Titicaca Grebe Rollandia microptera is a poorly studied endemic species found in the Lake Titicaca watershed of Peru and Bolivia. Multiple surveys from the early 2000s indicated that the species was suffering a rapid population decline with an unknown cause. At the same time as these surveys, reports emerged that there was an increase in burning of the totora wetlands which are thought to be the primary habitat for the Lake Titicaca Grebe. However, since 2003, no work has been published either on the current population of the Lake Titicaca Grebe, or the extent of the totora wetlands in the Lake Titicaca region. This paper used satellite data to monitor the change in extent of habitat potentially suitable for the Lake Titicaca Grebe to determine whether habitat loss is likely to be a major driver of population declines in this species. We found that the extent of potentially suitable wetland remained stable between 2001 and 2020, though there are more local regional trends of change in extent of totora. We also found that multiple areas exist that might support Lake Titicaca Grebe populations, but where ornithological knowledge is lacking. We suggest no change to the IUCN status of the Lake Titicaca Grebe, but recommend that further fieldwork is required to monitor the species’ current population, especially in previously unstudied but potentially habitable areas.

Participatory Ecological Monitoring (PEM) is a conservation methodology aiming to include local communities in the collection and analysis of biodiversity and threats data in a managed conservation zone. Often implemented annually, PEM optimises local knowledge to help understand ecological change which is an essential step towards assessing the success or failure of conservation activity and improving conservation effectiveness.

Adopting Regenerative Agriculture (RA) practices on temperate arable land can increase soil organic carbon (SOC) concentration without reducing crop yields. RA is therefore receiving much attention as a climate change mitigation strategy. However, estimating the potential change in national soil carbon stocks following adoption of RA practices is required to determine its suitability for this. Here, we use a well-validated model of soil carbon turnover (RothC) to simulate adoption of three regenerative practices (cover cropping, reduced tillage intensity and incorporation of a grass-based ley phase into arable rotations) across arable land in Great Britain (GB). We develop a modelling framework which calibrates RothC using studies of these measures from a recent systematic review, estimating the proportional increase in carbon inputs to the soil compared to conventional practice, before simulating adoption across GB. We find that cover cropping would on average increase SOC stocks by 10 t·ha−1 within 30 years of adoption across GB, potentially sequestering 6.5 megatonnes of carbon dioxide per year (MtCO2·y−1). Ley-arable systems could increase SOC stocks by 3 or 16 t·ha−1, potentially providing 2.2 or 10.6 MtCO2·y−1 of sequestration over 30 years, depending on the length of the ley-phase (one and four years, respectively, in these scenarios). In contrast, our modelling approach finds little change in soil carbon stocks when practising reduced tillage intensity. Our results indicate that adopting RA practices could make a meaningful contribution to GB agriculture reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions despite practical constraints to their uptake.

With a growing emphasis on the societal benefits gained through recreation outdoors, a method is needed to identify which spaces are most valuable for providing those benefits. Social media platforms offer a wealth of useful information on where people prefer to enjoy the outdoors. We combined geotagged images from Flickr with several environmental metrics in a Maxent model to calculate the probability of a photograph being taken (the potential supply of recreational amenity). We then built a set of population density kernels to express the potential demand of recreational amenity. Linear regression was used to compare supply and demand layers to visitation records from 540 recreation sites across Europe. The result was a map estimating the number of visitors/km2/year. Our analysis showed that natural areas near population centres deliver more recreational benefit than attractive sites in remote locations. The former should therefore be prioritised by planners and policymakers seeking to protect or improve recreational amenity.

The Spanish conquest of the Cuchumatanes Highlands (1524–1541 ce) led to dramatic land use changes adhering to colonial practices and values, which included the rearing of livestock, agriculture, timber extraction, mining, and the relocation of indigenous populations to new settlements. These changes are often recorded in historical accounts and official records; however, these are sparse, incomplete, and have been lost over the passage of time. Here, we present a high-resolution palaeoenvironmental reconstruction for Cenote Kail (Guatemala) since the Spanish Conquest, to provide additional evidence of land use changes from an integrated multi-proxy perspective. We analysed: (i) fossil pollen; (ii) macroscopic and microscopic charcoal; and (iii) dung fungal spores (Sporormiella) from a lake sediment core extracted from Cenote Kail in the Cuchumatanes highlands, combining these analyses with remotely sensed satellite data. We reconstructed: (i) forest composition and dynamics; (ii) burning, (iii) fauna abundance, and (iv) agricultural activities. High resolution age-depth modelling was conducted using a combination of 210Pb and 14C dates. The high temporal resolution enabled a novel integrated validation of the charcoal data sets with remotely sensed satellite data and the historical record. Three stages of floral compositional change were discerned from the palynological assemblage data encompassing: (i) the decline of mixed hard wood forests (MHWF), associated with the building of new settlements, agriculture and timber extraction for fuel (1550–1675 ce); (ii) pastoral expansions involving the rearing of livestock (1700–1800 ce); and (iii) the expansions of urban settlements and increasing management of the land (1821–2015 ce). Seed predation is suggested as the dominant factor preventing MHWF from re-establishing in the Cuchumatanes Highlands over the past 500 years. Burning is limited locally and regionally and in line with the modern regime, which suggests that fire has been managed and controlled since European contact.

Background: The West Malagasy dry forests support numerous endemic species and experience heavy anthropogenic pressures, yet remain very poorly studied. Further research is required to understand species distributions and overall diversity in these threatened forest ecosystems.

Objectives: We aimed to provide a description of the avifaunal community of a particular dry forest, Mariarano forest, north-western Madagascar, as well as other habitats that are heavily integrated with these Forests. The study site possesses a highly endemic bird community and is under severe environmental pressure, but remains poorly explored.

Method: We compiled all records from a 9-year (2010–2018) bird survey data set (the most extensive compiled from a Madagascan dry forest to date), which yielded data from a combination of point count and mist-netting protocols. This was further supplemented by approximately 4384 h of opportunistic observation effort.

Results: In total, 95 species were detected, including 63 regional endemics (66.3% of all species), 2 local endemics and 7 Threatened or Near-Threatened species.

Conclusion: We highlight the forest mosaic habitats of Mariarano as a potential new Important Bird Area, given the regional importance of its endemic avifauna.

Smallholder farmers dependent on rain-fed agriculture are particularly vulnerable to extreme climate events and, therefore, it is necessary to identify adaptive measures that would increase farmer resilience to these shocks. The management options in a low-input system, like forest coffee (Coffea arabica), are limited and there are several factors out of farmers' control driving their vulnerability to changing climatic conditions. These can relate to social structures and landscape factors, which can interact to reduce farmers' adaptive capacity, creating a state of contextual vulnerability. We explored the potential synergies of this interaction across elevation, patch area and shade management gradients for smallholder coffee farms around the UNESCO Yayu Coffee Forest Biosphere Reserve in Ethiopia before, during and immediately following the 2015/16 El Niño. We documented a dramatic collapse in coffee yields across all farms, resulting in coffee incomes 29.5% ± 18.0% and 19.5% ± 10.0% of 2014 incomes in 2015 and 2016, respectively. We identified farms at elevations between 1500 and 1600 m with canopy openness between 40% and 45% as being consistently low yielding over our study period. We found these farmers had the highest rates of income diversification and, therefore, were already exhibiting adaptive capacity. Farmers with the largest income losses were spatially concentrated between 1600 and 1700 m, located in larger patch areas with lower canopy openness. Farmers at this elevation have access to poor infrastructure, restrictions on shade management and reported higher dependence on income from coffee, indicating an interaction of biotic and social factors exacerbating their vulnerability. Unfortunately, due to a nationally declared state of emergency, we were unable to survey farmers on the adaptive measures they undertook; therefore, we are limited in assessing their resilience. However, we do show the importance of considering both biotically and socially-mediated influences for assessing smallholder vulnerability, particularly barriers to diversifying incomes.

1. The overall aim in the development of the Local Ecological Footprinting Tool (LEFT) was to design a web-based tool that could provide quickly obtained quantitative data on ecological risk to assist landowners when making land-use change decisions.
2. The Local Ecological Footprinting Tool works for almost any region in the world and uses freely available satellite imagery, biotic and abiotic data from existing global databases, models and algorithms to deliver a customised report for a selected area within one hour of job submission.
3. Biotic data automatically obtained for a selected landscape includes terrestrial vertebrate and plant species occurrence data, information on their conservation status and remotely sensed vegetation productivity. Abiotic information obtained includes temperature, precipitation, water availability, insolation, topography, elevation, distribution of urban infrastructure and location of wetlands.
4. The tool performs a number of analyses on the biotic and abiotic data to produce maps for the selected area at a 30 m resolution depicting land cover type, numbers of globally threatened terrestrial vertebrate and plant species, beta-diversity of terrestrial vertebrates and plants, habitat intactness, wetland habitat connectivity, numbers of migratory species and vegetation resilience. Results are also aggregated to produce a summary map demonstrating areas of high and low ecological risk across the selected area.
5. The Local Ecological Footprinting Tool has been designed to be intuitive to use, requiring no specialised software or user expertise. Input is extremely easy and requires the user to highlight the area of interest on a map or using grid co-ordinates. Output is delivered via the web application and comprises a customised PDF containing the maps and a zip file of geographical information system (GIS) data for the area requested. Users may run an unlimited number of LEFT analyses and download reports free of charge. In addition to the free tool described in this paper, there is also a paid service: individual LEFT analyses can be upgraded for a charge to allow access to the geographically subsetted datasets generated for each report. These data are supplied as a zip file containing raster datasets for the layers in the LEFT analysis in GeoTIFF format. These can be opened and queried in a GIS software package.

Crop pollination by bees has long been recognized as an ecosystem service of huge economic value; a large number of food crops depend upon pollination. Features across landscapes that are important for pollination delivery include: nesting habitats, floral resource availability at foraging distance, and climate. The conditions for presence/absence of pollinators are therefore complex and rely upon a combination of biotic and abiotic factors. To date there has been no easily available method for landowners to determine the potential of pollination delivery across the land effectively and rapidly. In this paper we develop a method that uses freely available datasets to remotely estimate the relative provision of pollination service delivery provided by bees across Europe at a 300 m-pixel resolution. We then identify the potential pollination delivery and efficiency across Europe at country and regional level. This study illustrates an approach that obtains a first approximation for land managers to identify potential areas across landscapes to protect in order to enhance pollination service delivery.

The identification of properties that contribute to the persistence and resilience of ecosystems despite climate change constitutes a research priority of global relevance1. Here we present a novel, empirical approach to assess the relative sensitivity of ecosystems to climate variability, one property of resilience that builds on theoretical modelling work recognizing that systems closer to critical thresholds respond more sensitively to external perturbations2. We develop a new metric, the vegetation sensitivity index, that identifies areas sensitive to climate variability over the past 14 years. The metric uses time series data derived from the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index3, and three climatic variables that drive vegetation productivity4 (air temperature, water availability and cloud cover). Underlying the analysis is an autoregressive modelling approach used to identify climate drivers of vegetation productivity on monthly timescales, in addition to regions with memory effects and reduced response rates to external forcing5. We find ecologically sensitive regions with amplified responses to climate variability in the Arctic tundra, parts of the boreal forest belt, the tropical rainforest, alpine regions worldwide, steppe and prairie regions of central Asia and North and South America, the Caatinga deciduous forest in eastern South America, and eastern areas of Australia. Our study provides a quantitative methodology for assessing the relative response rate of ecosystems—be they natural or with a strong anthropogenic signature—to environmental variability, which is the first step towards addressing why some regions appear to be more sensitive than others, and what impact this has on the resilience of ecosystem service provision and human well-being.

Population-level studies of how tit species (Parus spp.) track the changing phenology of their caterpillar food source have provided a model system allowing inference into how populations can adjust to changing climates, but are often limited because they implicitly assume all individuals experience similar environments. Ecologists are increasingly using satellite-derived data to quantify aspects of animals' environments, but so far studies examining phenology have generally done so at large spatial scales. Considering the scale at which individuals experience their environment is likely to be key if we are to understand the ecological and evolutionary processes acting on reproductive phenology within populations. Here, we use time series of satellite images, with a resolution of 240 m, to quantify spatial variation in vegetation green-up for a 385-ha mixed-deciduous woodland. Using data spanning 13 years, we demonstrate that annual population-level measures of the timing of peak abundance of winter moth larvae (Operophtera brumata) and the timing of egg laying in great tits (Parus major) and blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) is related to satellite-derived spring vegetation phenology. We go on to show that timing of local vegetation green-up significantly explained individual differences in tit reproductive phenology within the population, and that the degree of synchrony between bird and vegetation phenology showed marked spatial variation across the woodland. Areas of high oak tree (Quercus robur) and hazel (Corylus avellana) density showed the strongest match between remote-sensed vegetation phenology and reproductive phenology in both species. Marked within-population variation in the extent to which phenology of different trophic levels match suggests that more attention should be given to small-scale processes when exploring the causes and consequences of phenological matching. We discuss how use of remotely sensed data to study within-population variation could broaden the scale and scope of studies exploring phenological synchrony between organisms and their environment.

The local ecological footprinting tool (LEFT) uses globally available databases, modeling, and algorithms to remotely assess locally important ecological features across landscapes based on five criteria: biodiversity (beta-diversity), vulnerability (threatened species), fragmentation, connectivity, and resilience. This approach can be applied to terrestrial landscapes at a 300-m resolution within a given target area. Input is minimal (latitude and longitude) and output is a computer-generated report and series of maps that both individually and synthetically depict the relative value of each ecological criteria. A key question for any such tool, however, is how representative is the remotely obtained output compared to what is on the ground. Here, we present the results from comparing remotely- vs. field-generated outputs from the LEFT tool on two distinct study areas for beta-diversity and distribution of threatened species (vulnerability), the two fields computed by LEFT for which such an approach is feasible. The comparison method consists of a multivariate measure of similarity between two fields based on discrete wavelet transforms, and reveals consistent agreement across a wide range of spatial scales. These results suggest that remote assessment tools such as LEFT hold great potential for determining key ecological features across landscapes and for being utilized in preplanning biodiversity assessment tools.

Whilst there are a number of mapping methods available for determining important areas for conservation within protected areas, there are few tools available for assessing the ecological value of landscapes that are ‘beyond the reserves’. A systematic tool for determining the ecological value of landscapes outside of protected areas could be relevant to any development that results in a parcel of land being transformed from its ‘natural’ state to an alternative state (e.g., industrial, agricultural). Specifically what is needed is a method to determine which landscapes beyond protected areas are important for the ecological processes that they support and the threatened and vulnerable species that they contain. This paper presents the results of a project to develop a method for mapping ecologically important landscapes beyond protected areas; a Local Ecological Footprinting Tool (LEFT). The method uses existing globally available web-based databases and models to provide an ecological score based on five key ecological features (biodiversity, vulnerability, fragmentation, connectivity and resilience) for every 300 m parcel within a given region. The end product is a map indicating ecological value across the landscape. We demonstrate the potential of this method through its application to three study regions in Canada, Algeria and the Russian Federation. The primary audience of this tool are those practitioners involved in planning the location of any landscape scale industrial/business or urban (e.g., new town) facility outside of protected areas. It provides a pre-planning tool, for use before undertaking a more costly field-based environmental impact assessment, and quickly highlights areas of high ecological value to avoid in the location of facilities.

We isolated 76 microsatellite loci from the Sakalava rail (Amaurornis olivieri) genome. These were tested in 30 individuals from six sites (in three regions) across the species’ range in Madagascar. Thirty-four of the 76 loci produced unambiguous polymorphic markers, with mean H e  = 0.544 (range 0.0678–0.885), mean H o  = 0.430 (range 0.0400–0.767) and mean N a  = 4.59 (range 2–10). In addition, we tested all primers for amplification in the Wood rail, Canirallus kioloides (N = 3) and the Bemaraha rail, Canirallus sp. nov (N = 3). Twelve of the loci produced successful amplification with eight loci showing polymorphism.

The ‘Endangered’ Sakalava Rail Amaurornis olivieri is endemic to wetlands in western Madagascar, where it has been recorded between the Betsiboka river in the north and the Mangoky river in the south. Between August 2003 and November 2006, including dry and wet seasons, we surveyed 36 potentially suitable wetlands throughout its known range. We found Sakalava Rails at five sites: Lacs Kinkony, Ampandra, Amparihy, Sahapy and Mandrozo. At each site the population was small (12–39 individuals) and the highest density was 20 individuals km−2. We found up to 67 birds in each field visit and the total number of birds (sum of maxima at each site) seen was 100. We estimate the total population at the five sites to be 215 rails. We cannot confirm that the population lies within the range estimated in the current Red List (250–999 individuals), although this may yet be proven correct. The typical breeding habitat of Sakalava Rail is lotic marshes with a mixture of large areas of open water, reed Phragmites mauritianus and floating Salvinia hastata. The major threats to Sakalava Rail appear to be habitat loss caused by wetland conversion to rice fields and by fires, disturbance by fishermen and people from local villages, and hunting. Other processes that may alter the ecological character of wetlands and so affect their suitability for Sakalava Rails, such as hydrological change or the effects of exotic fish or vegetation, remain to be investigated.

The Madagascar plover Charadrius thoracicus is a shorebird endemic to western Madagascar, currently classified as globally vulnerable. It is restricted to specialized wetland habitats that are increasingly threatened by humans. To inform future conservation measures for this poorly known species, we develop a predictive habitat suitability map and use this map to estimate the size of the Madagascar plover population. We integrate spatially referenced presence-only observations of Madagascar plovers with Landsat data, elevation data and measures of distance to settlements and the coast to produce a habitat suitability model using ecological niche factor analysis. Validation of this model using a receiver operating characteristic plot suggests that it is at least 84% accurate in predicting suitable sites. We then use our estimate of total area of suitable habitat above a critical suitability threshold and data on Madagascar plover density in suitable sites to estimate the total population size to derive a total population estimate of 3100±396 standard error individuals. Finally, we explore the conservation applications of our model.

Many wildfowl species are declining and 34 out of 159 extant species are globally threatened, some of which are the subject of specific conservation programmes. Here we investigate which factors predict declining population trends across 154 species of Anseriformes. First we show that there are proportionately fewer declining wildfowl populations in North America, Europe and Australasia than in south and central America, Africa and Asia. Second, we use phylogenetic comparative analyses to test whether population size, global range size and ecological, life-history and sexually-selected traits predict population trends. We also consider anthropogenic threats, and human impacts within the breeding and non-breeding ranges of species. Using phylogenetically independent contrasts we show that small population size and small global ranges are the most important intrinsic factors that predispose wildfowl species to declining populations. Many wildfowl are hunted but, contrary to expectation, hunting did not influence population trends. Declining populations were associated with high International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) threat category, although the relationship is not very strong (r=0.134, n=129 contrasts) possibly because the IUCN criteria integrate population size, range size and an assessment of threat. Two extrinsic factors were significant predictors of population declines: the increase in area of agricultural land within a species' range (an indirect measure of wetland loss), and the total number of different threat processes such as habitat loss and pollution that threaten a species. Taken together, our results strongly suggest that both anthropogenic threats and intrinsic ecological factors are influencing population declines in wildfowl.