Migrant smuggling dynamics in conflict settings: the case of Sudan

Since April 2023, war in Sudan has ravaged the country, erasing the lives of entire communities and displacing close to 10 million. Prior to its outbreak, Sudan had been a major hosting country for refugees and key country of transit for those moving along the Central Mediterranean Route from the East and Horn of Africa. To contain the arrival of displaced populations from Sudan, in May-June 2023, Egypt and Ethiopia introduced new visa requirements, hampering many from seeking asylum.

In Egypt, those unable or unwilling to wait for visas have resorted to using smugglers to cross the border irregularly and risk death in the desert and protection incidents like deportation. Human rights groups are reporting an overall rise in the reliance on smugglers and increase in vulnerability to abuses such as forced work and physical and sexual violence. The longer the conflict persists, there is a risk for more extortionate smuggling dynamics to emerge and become entrenched in Sudan, akin to the dynamics observed in Libya, as local armed groups extort migrants or force them to engage in work to support their war efforts, in the absence of a functioning state and security apparatus.

Drawing upon data from ongoing research by the Mixed Migration Centre in Sudan and neighboring countries, this presentation shall present preliminary findings on migrants’ interactions with smugglers in Sudan, how smugglers operate in and out of Sudan and their modus operandi, and how smugglers’ operations and networks may have shifted since the onset of the conflict.